فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 132 (پاییز 1399)

In this study, the extent of self-employed households' income under-reporting is estimated based on the expenditure approach, using household budget data. In this regard, the Engel curve of wage earners, which represents the relationship between their income and food expenditures, is used to estimate the true income of self-employed households based on their stated food expenditures. Through this approach, the average under-reporting of self-employed households during 2000 to 2019 equals 8.5 percent of their total income. By examining under-reporting among different groups of jobs, it can be observed that the highest under-reporting is among the "agriculture, forestry and fishery skilled workers" and "legislators, high-ranking officials and managers". Then, in order to study the temporal under-reporting behavior, it is estimated separately for different years. The results show an ascending trend in the extent of under-reporting during 2004-2010, in a way that this extent reaches its highest point in 2010. 

Does increasing the presence of women in government lead to less corruption, or does corruption prevent the presence of women? Are these effects significant enough in one or both directions? This paper has used the dynamic panel data approach (GMM-SYSTEM) and statistical data of 89 countries including Iran during the period of 2008-2017. So, This paper by Estimating Relationship Between Corruption and Gender Indicators answered the above questions.The results of estimating systems indicate that government institution is a missing loop in relationship between corruption and gender and its effects are statistically significant

Due to economic shocks and imbalances in structural budgets, there is a situation that leads to stress in governments in uncertain conditions. Fiscal stress as a unstable situation in local governments' financing can exacerbate governments' inability to meet short-term and long-term fiscal commitments and excessive dependence on the central government. In this study, we tried to clarify the fiscal situation in 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index under variables of each province's fiscal structure and budget, then, we estimate the  threshold and spatial effects through the Panel Smooth Transition Regression method on economic growth and employment over the period 2005-2017. The results show that the high effectiveness of the labor market from stress to economic growth. Initially, these effects on both economic growth and employment have an immediate and positive effect. but by crossing the threshold of fiscal stress and exerting pressure on it, the ability to control this imbalance is eliminated and will reduce economic growth and employment.

The purpose of this study is to find out the impact of financial development on monetary policy efficiency (the effect of financial development on the central bank's target variables) in OECD and OPEC countries for the period of 2001-2017, based on annual data. To achieve this purpose, a comprehensive index, which had been introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, was optimized by using fuzzy logic and was used as a proxy for financial development. Additionally, in order to evaluate the interrelationships among variables in model, we used the GMM econometric model. The results indicate that in OPEC countries, the weak financial development increases the efficiency of monetary policies on inflation, while it does not have a significant effect on output growth, and also the results show that in OECD countries, the strong financial development increases the efficiency of monetary policies on output growth and inflation, but these effects are small compared to OPEC countries.

In this study, we simulated the effect of trade on Iran's economic growth by using a combination of econometric methods and system dynamics. Through the design of a conceptual framework, an attempt has been made to expand the Ozawa (1965) -Lucas (1988) growth pattern by expanding the Oniki-Ozawa (2015) model. Entering the role of trade through trade volume and foreign investment inthe model, we simulated and predicted  the effect of these two factors on the trend of production of goods and knowledge production, human capital index, and innovation indexfor the period of 1359 to 1409 (Solar Year). We used business data from Malaysia and Turkey to analyze a shock and compare the result  with Iran's data. The results show that the effect of technology resulting from trade (in the sense of foreign investment) only affecte the  technology function, and the growth of technology has  a positive effect on the knowledge production function. In addition, trade has not a positive effect on the commodity production function.. Besides, following Malaysia’s trend of foreign investment to simulate Iran’s situation  is beteer working than the model of Turkey and current Iran’s model. Finally, the result of forecast for economic growth for the period of 1399 to 1409 indicates a situation of economic recession. With countinuing this situation and sanction, a worst situation is expected. 

This paper investigates the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth (Okan Law) in Iran. Our results show that there is a weak relationship between our variables of interest. Further, over the last two decades, the significant relationship between economic growth and employment growth was lost which was an indicator of an increase in unemployment rate in some years. We also define and estimate the effective unemployment rate to exclude active population from the official unemployment rate. We find that a decrease in the participation rate explains changes in the unemployment rate in comparison with an increase in the economic growth.

This paper studies the different roles of public and private financial intermediary institutions in asset pricing in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and Iran Fara Bourse (IFB) markets. Investment companies active in the capital market of Iran were selected to represent the financial intermediary sector. The intermediary asset pricing model is estimated for two distinct groups of public and private intermediaries using quarterly data. The estimated price of capital factor has been positive and significant at the 5 percent level and less for most of the private intermediary institutions. At a 95 percent level of confidence, a unit of increase in the risk sensitivity of stock returns to capital shocks of the whole private sector coincides with a 3.156 to 3.159 percent increase in seasonal stock return. Accordingly, capital shocks of private intermediaries should be seen as an effective factor in asset pricing in the capital market of Iran. For the public intermediaries, the capital factor price has not been positive and significant at the 5 percent level, neither for individual institutions nor for the whole sector. Therefore, capital shocks of public intermediaries cannot be seen as an effective factor in stock pricing in the capital market of Iran. 

While most of the studies have looked at the relationship between decentralization and corruption, or between decentralization and growth, or between corruption and growth, few have looked at the joint relationship between the three. This article represents a contribution to the literature on the relationship between decentralization, corruption and economic growth. This relationship is analyzed both theoretically and empirically by using panel data techniques for the selected oil exporting countries during 1998-2017. By regarding the countries' dependence on oil export, these countries have a concentrated structure and are rife with corruption.  The result for fixed effects regressions indicate that corruption does indeed have a negative effect on growth as the estimated coefficients for control of corruption variable in the various growth models are positive by 0.74, 0.53, 0.62. The decentralization indicators have a significant and positive effect on economic growth by 0.43, 0.13 and 0.18. Finally, the results suggest that the negative effect of corruption on economic growth is reduced by decentralization, as the interaction term coefficient is positive for two of the regressions undertaken.

According to James Heckman, human development is economic development. This means that nurturing flourish and capable human beings through the channel of fostering valuable skills under the influence of various factors (environment, school, and parental investment) lead to reducing inequality, increasing economic productivity, and production capacity. The stock of these skills in adulthood leads to the various outcomes that Heckman and Corbin (2016) call human flourishing. Therefore, an index called the Human Flourishing Index (HFI) is proposed and calculated for the first time in this study. Accordingly, the present study establishes a link between Heckman's theory and efficiency analysis by inserting HFI as a proxy of human capital in the production function, and by using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model of Battese and Coelli (1993; 1995); examines the technical efficiency of the production of the selected countries group and identifies the factors affecting it in the period of 2003-2017. Estimation of a frontier production function and the inefficiency effects model indicate a positive and significant effect of HFI on the per capita production of the selected countries group and four factors of official entrance age to pre-primary education, pupil-teacher ratio (pre-primary), percentage of enrolment in primary education in private institutions and gross enrolment ratio (secondary) on the technical efficiency of production. The results also indicate the increasing trend of HFI and technical efficiency of the selected countries group during the period.

In recent decades, the economy and its related components have played a prominent role in the relations between countries and the measurement of their national power. Countries have a direct and significant relationship with the level of economic development. Due to the special geopolitical situation and the surrounding threats, Iran has always paid attention to the increase of its defense power and capability in order to achieve sustainable security. In this study, in order to explain the key economic factors affecting Iran's defense power in the time horizon of 1410 by studying the relevant documents and previous scientific records and using the opinions of 50 experts, 109 economic factors were identified. In the second step, with the formation of the expert panel, similar factors were merged and 38 factors were identified. Then, based on the opinion of experts, the values of the factors were ranked and 28 important and effective factors were determined. Finally, by using Micmac software and crossover matrix analysis method, 12 significant factors and 5 factors as key economic factors affecting Iran's defense power were identified.